Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries
We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the probability and duration of economic recessions in 10 major European Union countries over the period 1987Q2–2021Q1. We find that economic policy uncertainty results in not only a higher probability of economic recessions but also longer reces...
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| Định dạng: | Bài trích |
| Ngôn ngữ: | English |
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Elsevier
2022
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| Truy cập trực tuyến: | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0275531922000897?via%3Dihub https://dlib.phenikaa-uni.edu.vn/handle/PNK/5979 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101701 |
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oai:localhost:PNK-59792022-08-17T05:54:51Z Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries Thanh Cong, Nguyen Economic recessions Duration of economic recessions We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the probability and duration of economic recessions in 10 major European Union countries over the period 1987Q2–2021Q1. We find that economic policy uncertainty results in not only a higher probability of economic recessions but also longer recessions. Specifically, with a one-standard-deviation increase in the economic policy uncertainty index, on average the probability of an economic recession goes up by 14%, and the probability of an economic recession ending reduces by 27%, controlling for general economic uncertainty and economic and political factors. Moreover, we find that fiscal expansion, adequate political support, and left-wing governments’ policies are important to alleviate the effects of policy uncertainty on the likelihood of economic recessions. 2022-07-13T02:00:12Z 2022-07-13T02:00:12Z 2022 Bài trích https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0275531922000897?via%3Dihub https://dlib.phenikaa-uni.edu.vn/handle/PNK/5979 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101701 en Elsevier |
| institution |
Digital Phenikaa |
| collection |
Digital Phenikaa |
| language |
English |
| topic |
Economic recessions Duration of economic recessions |
| spellingShingle |
Economic recessions Duration of economic recessions Thanh Cong, Nguyen Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries |
| description |
We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the probability and duration of economic recessions in 10 major European Union countries over the period 1987Q2–2021Q1. We find that economic policy uncertainty results in not only a higher probability of economic recessions but also longer recessions. Specifically, with a one-standard-deviation increase in the economic policy uncertainty index, on average the probability of an economic recession goes up by 14%, and the probability of an economic recession ending reduces by 27%, controlling for general economic uncertainty and economic and political factors. Moreover, we find that fiscal expansion, adequate political support, and left-wing governments’ policies are important to alleviate the effects of policy uncertainty on the likelihood of economic recessions. |
| format |
Bài trích |
| author |
Thanh Cong, Nguyen |
| author_facet |
Thanh Cong, Nguyen |
| author_sort |
Thanh Cong, Nguyen |
| title |
Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries |
| title_short |
Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries |
| title_full |
Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries |
| title_fullStr |
Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries |
| title_sort |
economic policy uncertainty: the probability and duration of economic recessions in major european union countries |
| publisher |
Elsevier |
| publishDate |
2022 |
| url |
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0275531922000897?via%3Dihub https://dlib.phenikaa-uni.edu.vn/handle/PNK/5979 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101701 |
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1751856291360276480 |
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8.881002 |