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Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries

We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the probability and duration of economic recessions in 10 major European Union countries over the period 1987Q2–2021Q1. We find that economic policy uncertainty results in not only a higher probability of economic recessions but also longer reces...

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Main Author: Thanh Cong, Nguyen
Format: Bài trích
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2022
Subjects:
Economic recessions
Duration of economic recessions
Online Access:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0275531922000897?via%3Dihub
https://dlib.phenikaa-uni.edu.vn/handle/PNK/5979
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101701
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spelling oai:localhost:PNK-59792022-08-17T05:54:51Z Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries Thanh Cong, Nguyen Economic recessions Duration of economic recessions We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the probability and duration of economic recessions in 10 major European Union countries over the period 1987Q2–2021Q1. We find that economic policy uncertainty results in not only a higher probability of economic recessions but also longer recessions. Specifically, with a one-standard-deviation increase in the economic policy uncertainty index, on average the probability of an economic recession goes up by 14%, and the probability of an economic recession ending reduces by 27%, controlling for general economic uncertainty and economic and political factors. Moreover, we find that fiscal expansion, adequate political support, and left-wing governments’ policies are important to alleviate the effects of policy uncertainty on the likelihood of economic recessions. 2022-07-13T02:00:12Z 2022-07-13T02:00:12Z 2022 Bài trích https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0275531922000897?via%3Dihub https://dlib.phenikaa-uni.edu.vn/handle/PNK/5979 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101701 en Elsevier
institution Digital Phenikaa
collection Digital Phenikaa
language English
topic Economic recessions
Duration of economic recessions
spellingShingle Economic recessions
Duration of economic recessions
Thanh Cong, Nguyen
Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries
description We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the probability and duration of economic recessions in 10 major European Union countries over the period 1987Q2–2021Q1. We find that economic policy uncertainty results in not only a higher probability of economic recessions but also longer recessions. Specifically, with a one-standard-deviation increase in the economic policy uncertainty index, on average the probability of an economic recession goes up by 14%, and the probability of an economic recession ending reduces by 27%, controlling for general economic uncertainty and economic and political factors. Moreover, we find that fiscal expansion, adequate political support, and left-wing governments’ policies are important to alleviate the effects of policy uncertainty on the likelihood of economic recessions.
format Bài trích
author Thanh Cong, Nguyen
author_facet Thanh Cong, Nguyen
author_sort Thanh Cong, Nguyen
title Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries
title_short Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries
title_full Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries
title_fullStr Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries
title_full_unstemmed Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries
title_sort economic policy uncertainty: the probability and duration of economic recessions in major european union countries
publisher Elsevier
publishDate 2022
url https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0275531922000897?via%3Dihub
https://dlib.phenikaa-uni.edu.vn/handle/PNK/5979
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101701
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score 8.89252

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