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Development of a mathematical model to predict the health impact and duration of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on board cargo vessels

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Ng, Kok Yew, Codreanu, Tudor A., Gui, Meei Mei
Format: Book
Language:English
Published: Springer 2023
Subjects:
SEIQ(H)R
Coronavirus Disease
Online Access:https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13437-022-00291-1
https://dlib.phenikaa-uni.edu.vn/handle/PNK/9084
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spelling oai:localhost:PNK-90842023-09-18T08:04:36Z Development of a mathematical model to predict the health impact and duration of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on board cargo vessels Ng, Kok Yew Codreanu, Tudor A. Gui, Meei Mei SEIQ(H)R Coronavirus Disease CC-BY The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has brought significant impact onto the maritime activities worldwide, including disruption to global trade and supply chains. The ability to predict the evolution and duration of a COVID-19 outbreak on cargo vessels would inform a more nuanced response to the event and provide a more precise return-to-trade date. This paper presents the SEIQ(H)R (Susceptibility–Exposed–Infected–Quarantine–(Hospitalisation)–Removed/Recovered) model, which is the first deterministic mathematical model developed and fit-tested to describe the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 on board cargo vessels of up to 60 crew members. Due to specific living and working circumstances on board cargo vessels, instead of utilising the reproduction number, we consider the highest fraction of crew members who share the same nationality to quantify the transmissibility of the disease. The performance of the model is verified using case studies based on data collected during COVID-19 outbreaks on three cargo vessels in Western Australia during 2020. 2023-09-18T08:04:36Z 2023-09-18T08:04:36Z 2022 Book https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13437-022-00291-1 https://dlib.phenikaa-uni.edu.vn/handle/PNK/9084 en application/pdf Springer
institution Digital Phenikaa
collection Digital Phenikaa
language English
topic SEIQ(H)R
Coronavirus Disease
spellingShingle SEIQ(H)R
Coronavirus Disease
Ng, Kok Yew
Codreanu, Tudor A.
Gui, Meei Mei
Development of a mathematical model to predict the health impact and duration of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on board cargo vessels
description CC-BY
format Book
author Ng, Kok Yew
Codreanu, Tudor A.
Gui, Meei Mei
author_facet Ng, Kok Yew
Codreanu, Tudor A.
Gui, Meei Mei
author_sort Ng, Kok Yew
title Development of a mathematical model to predict the health impact and duration of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on board cargo vessels
title_short Development of a mathematical model to predict the health impact and duration of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on board cargo vessels
title_full Development of a mathematical model to predict the health impact and duration of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on board cargo vessels
title_fullStr Development of a mathematical model to predict the health impact and duration of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on board cargo vessels
title_full_unstemmed Development of a mathematical model to predict the health impact and duration of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on board cargo vessels
title_sort development of a mathematical model to predict the health impact and duration of sars-cov-2 outbreaks on board cargo vessels
publisher Springer
publishDate 2023
url https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13437-022-00291-1
https://dlib.phenikaa-uni.edu.vn/handle/PNK/9084
_version_ 1779307153528455168
score 8.881002

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